Author: Elizabeth Aygei, Faries Alshammari, Yousef Al-Saudi
Abstract
Polymarket has recorded a cumulative trading volume of 61 billion dollars (Qin
and Yang, 2026). This number is increasing by day, with Polymarket alone recording
three billion dollars in trades during the last US presidential elections. Platforms like
Polymarket now market to the masses and are seen everywhere. Most recently,
platforms have been advertising themselves for everyone to see in the Fifa World Cup
with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo celebrating their goals in front of prediction market
billboards. Prediction markets are now simply too large to ignore or not investigate. This
paper seeks to shed light on prediction markets. It proceeds in four parts. First, it
explains what prediction markets are and how they operate. Second, it examines two
structural problems undermining their integrity: insider trading and wash trading. Third,
it evaluates the claim that prediction markets provide a societal benefit as reliable
aggregators of information. Finally, it compares the regulatory approaches adopted in
the United Kingdom and the United States, with particular attention to whether the UK's
response is justified.
Bristol's space for students who want to push ideas further.
Where curiosity turns into real research and collaboration.